Conference Call

January 31, 2018 Slides

Participants:

Levi Johnson, Mike Berry, Chris Hammersmark, Julie Zimmerman, Matt Brown, Rene Henery, Robyn Bilski, Cesar Blanco, Towns Burgess, Lisa Hunt, Dan Kratville, Rod Wittler, Felipe Carrillo, Josh Israel, Mike Urkov, Jim Peterson, Adam Duarte

Jim and Adam asked the SIT to send feedback on AFP restoration strategy in next 2 weeks. Matt would like us to add time commitments of watershed experts and SIT members before sending it out. Matt asked if there is going to be an open call for charters. Cesar and Rod said that a final decision has not been made on that yet.

Jim asked if there was a rule of thumb to turn the amount of gravel to a habitat unit. Chris said it really depends on the depth of the area. Rod said it also depends on the method they use for gravel placement. Matt said they will provide some estimates and break it out by type and floodplain combination projects. Rene said there is also a number of different types of floodplain projects out there. He said we should get that information from different examples as a starting point. He said we should reach out to Joe at Cramer and look at some of the projects done on the American and the Yolo Bypass. He will talk to folks at a salmon partnership meeting tomorrow. Rene will send Joe an email about this.

SIT discussed how ocean survival is currently being modeled. Rene talked about the management actions we do really is centered on delivering juveniles in a portfolio of size and timing. He thinks our conceptual model is such that if we send out medium and large fish with less total fish we will get a higher return than a bunch of smaller fish. Rene suggested we rely on otolith data to update some of these relationships. They suggest that under certain years we have a sense of what size classes produced the most adults and how many small fish it took to make a big fish vs. big outmigrants that make an adult. He says we can use those relationship where we have data and extrapolate to where we don't have data. He said we can use the otolith data to predict the likelihood of a "good" vs. "bad" ocean condition and how we treat those different size classes in the ocean. Dan suggest we also look at coded wire tag returns or fish that have been put in these different bypasses in the system, if they were recaptured. Rene agreed but said that we don't actually know the size distribution going into those bypasses are. Dan said that he thinks we are making the assumption that fish that grow big have high survival. Rene said we do have evidence of that in the otolith data. Dan said we also need to include the influence of tributary and delta conditions that influence that relationship. Rene said those data might be in the reports but said we should talk about this idea with Corey and Rachel before we moved ahead with this idea. Jim said we will contact them a do a sidebar with anyone that is interested. Josh would like to consider the coded wire tag as well. He would suggest we look at Will's paper, which is centered on survival in the ocean. Rene agreed. A lot of this is summarized in the Cramer Fish Sciences, Josh will share the web link for this again. Rene said we do have a lot of data on outmigrant size classes, how those different size classes fair, and he thinks a key question is to how the distribution, number, and time per cohort we have the potential to see how different our model output is with those patterns. Josh, Rene, and Dan would like to be incorporated in this subgroup. Send Adam and Cesar an email if you want to be included.

Adam updated the SIT on simulations he did to evaluate the integrated model to estimate fish growth, survival, and movement transition probabilities. Rene asked about the very large fish because very large fish in ocean entry. Adam clarified that the simulation were a proof of concept and that the 4 size classes will be included when fitting the model to the screw-trap data. Importantly, the results demonstrated that the integrated model can estimate survival, growth, and movement transitions probabilities for juvenile fish by combining the escapement and screw-trap data. This means the SIT will be able to evaluate the hypotheses currently in the Chinook conceptual models for juvenile survival, growth, and movement. It also means that the SIT will be able to update model weights using a hindcasting approach, if data on past CVPIA projects become available.

Rod received a couple performance measures and we can discuss at the next call-in meeting. He will send the comments to Adam, so he can send it out with the notes. If you have any more edits, please send them to Rod.

Marching Orders

Jim and Adam

  • Add time commitments of watershed experts and SIT member to the AFP restoration strategy.

Rene

  • Gather information on the different types of floodplains to help focus unit of effort discussions.

Josh, Rene, Dan, Jim, and Adam

  • Contact Corey and Rachel about otolith data and begin side bar discussions centered on ocean survival.

SIT

  • Send an edits on the performance measure to Rod before the next call-in meeting.
  • Send Adam and Cesar an email if you would like to be included on discussions for ocean survival