February 09, 2022 Slides
The SIT’s February 9, 2022 conference call included subgroup updates, part 2 of the juvenile Chinook salmon movement ruleset discussion, and a science talk from Brett Harvey (DWR) on the Spring-run Juvenile Production Estimate science program. The juvenile movement ruleset discussion will continue within the Salmon Demographics, Movement, and Growth Subgroup to continue developing the hypotheses with updates to the broader SIT.
Detailed Meeting Notes
Bernard Aguilar, Mike Beakes, Thad Bettner, Erica Bishop, Tricia Bratcher, Matt Brown, Erin Cain, Rebekah Casey, Charles Chamberlain, Megan Cook, Flora Cordoleani, John Dealy, Adam Duarte, Laurie Earley, Brain Ellrott, Sadie Gill, Harmony Gugino, Chris Hammersmark, John Hannon, Brett Harvey, Jason Hassrick, James Hobbs, Baker Holden, Kimberly Holley, John Kelly, Priscilla Liang, Erica Lunda, Amy Lyons, Todd Manley, Kirk Nelson, Keith Marine, Bryan Matthias, Mike Memeo, Erica Meyers, Cyril Michel, Jim Peterson, Corey Phillis, Dick Pool, Michael Prowatzke, Emanuel Rodriguez, Derek Rupert, Will Satterthwaite, Ian Smith, Nicholas Som, Kate Spear, Steve Thomas, Mark Tompkins, Annalisa Tuel, Mike Urkov, JD Wikert, Heidi Williams, Rod Wittler, Mike Wright
10:00 Introductions/Agenda Review (Megan Cook)
10:05 Adaptive Management Update (Megan Cook)
- FWS/BOR internal review occuring now, will be circulated to SIT after that and will have 2 weeks to review once out
10:25 Subgroup and Proposal Updates (Megan Cook)
- Climate change subgroups- Megan to send email shortly for kick-off, address outcomes for changes in DSMs
- Monitoring subgroup: lots of topics coming up, Megan and Rod talking this week, email from Megan next few weeks
- Salmon demographics subgroup: additional tasks for subgroup to address related to the juvenile movement ruleset topic today; will convene subgroup after this meeting
- Steelhead PWT- Megan had good call with Mike Beakes (co-chair along with Robyn Bilski) - will be seeking feedback from SIT on draft Steelhead Monitoring Plan for the Southern Sierra Nevada Diversity Group (rough timeline Spring 2022 for input)
- Megan had call with Alicia Seeholtz and John Kelly (co-chairs), they will address inputs as necessary, ready to support sturgeon needs at the SIT, co-chairs have list of sturgeon projects, want to initiate update for what’s happening out there, will kick-off soon via PWT, will be good as SIT thinks about info needs and what data gaps are
- Habitat subgroup (Mark Tompkins): progress since last meeting includes working session with Reclamation 2D modeler on use of sediment transport data for spawning habitat decay and working session with ICF spatial analyst to understand new off-channel habitat data and how it could be used in DSMs. Next subgroup meeting week of Feb 18th.
SIT Proposal Update: New Flow Inputs to DSMs (CALSIM)
- Proposal included few times before, and last in January
- Want to refresh memory of what’s in there, final chance for input
- Nothing changed since last discussion
- Any questions? No
- Rod: with the reinitiation of consultation, expect additional CalSim runs based on those; process to incorporate/update would be the same as we’ve followed here.
- Proposal considered final and accepted and will be implemented in the next round of model updates
SIT Proposal Update: Spawning Habitat Decay
- Talked about this in last 1-2 meetings, draft proposal available
- Current DSMs include spawning habitat decay has problematic distribution, main intent to link up spawning habitat decay/lost to hydrology/sediment transport
- Study complete from Keswick to Clear Creek in Sacramento, create relationship between flow and sediment transport
- Won’t have all Sac modeling by Fall 2022, can use the Keswick to Clear Creek for downstream (scale it)
- Need additional discussion with habitat subgroup and bring back to SIT by next meeting (finalize part of proposal on how it gets integrated into model)
10:45 Juvenile Fish Movement Rule Sets–Part 2 (Adam Duarte)
- Don’t want to incorporate complexity for sake of complexity
- Review how fish currently move in DSMs to refamiliarize everyone
- Review why incorporating multiple movement hypotheses is likely beneficial
- Discuss how these hypotheses could be incorporated into existing DSMs
- Discuss how we might test each of these hypotheses
- Identify what tools/exercises would be useful for the group to evaluate the different movement hypotheses
- Get SIT members thinking about what hypotheses should be included in future versions of Chinook salmon DSMs
- Two submitted juvenile movement hypotheses so far: 1. There is a threshold level of pulse flows that moves fish downstream, and 2. Increasing temperature overrides the density dependent mechanism to move fish downstream
- Review of Late-Fall Run DSM Movement Hypotheses app: https://flowwest.shinyapps.io/dsm-movement-hypothesis/
- Will be asking the salmon demographics subgroup to dive into this in more detail (anyone welcome to join). Expect approx. 3 subgroup meetings dedicated to juvenile movement rulesets. Subgroup meetings will be scheduled prior to SIT meetings and updates provided at SIT meetings.
11:30 Science Talk: Spring-run JPE Science Program (Brett Harvey, DWR)
- Developing and Implementing a Spring-run Chinook Salmon Juvenile Production Estimate (JPE)
- JPE responsibilities: Lead agencies (DWR & DFW), Core Tech Advisory Team (DWR, CDFW, NMFS, BOR, MWD, SWC, UCSC, USFWS), Technical Input (Regional Staff & Consultants), Funding (DWR (+)), Contract Management (DWR, DFW), Reporting and Outreach (DWR and team)
Why Develop a Spring-run JPE?
- FESA and CESA- listed
- SWP/CVP entrainment management
- ITP: required
- LTO-PA: performance measure
- Focus: Inform Entrainment Management
- JPE = forecast
- Quantitative JPE models: production x survival = JPE +/- error
New Monitoring and Studies
- New monitoring and studies focused on capturing abundance estimates on different life stages, trying to get more consistent surveys of adults
- Required to fund some level of pathogen monitoring (kicking off in March, primarily focusing on Feather River and C. shasta)
- Two new rotary screw traps installed (Lower Feather River and Sacramento River Delta Entry)
- JPE Race ID Program: develop probabilistic length at date model (pLAD) for each screw trap to help identify where it would be most useful to do genetic assignment (e.g., fish that are 50% likely to be fall-run and 50% likely to be spring-run vs. fish 90% likely to be fall-run). pLAD model being developed by Noble Hendrix.
Data Management System
- Curation - intend to have all data posted publicly (like on EDI) that makes it easy for public to access, upload from field datasheets, and for field folks to get helpful information back.
- Metadata - currently figuring out metadata
- Data alignment - working on identifying what data is compatible and make improvements. Will be a lot of effort and outreach related to this.
- Pretty much on schedule
- In April 2024 supposed to come up with a JPE recommendation or at least the consequence table. That will go out for independent review and be approved by CDFW (target by Oct).
- On Jan 1, 2025 supposed to be calculating JPE for spring-run. Uncertain whether it will be informing a minimization measure at that point as well.
Supporting NTRS Info Needs
- Survival: will definitely be informed once figure out how to do with tiny fish
- Growth: would provide apparent growth estimates (not actually measuring growth)
- Movement: Tracking abundance and movement across the landscape would definitely help inform where and how long fish are hanging out in different regions and how that’s influenced by flow and temperature
- Juvenile production: definitely develop for Feather River and get a better sense of what’s happening in Mill, Deer, Butte. Supporting some genetics work in Clear Creek as well.
- Prespawn mortality: hope to get more reliable information on this particularly from some of the less intensively monitored streams
- Dick Pool: cost for whole project? Brett Harvey: In flux right now